Abstract：This paper studies the effects of the M2 money supply shock on the downside risks to house prices in China, using local projections and smooth local projections. We rely on measures of house prices at risk and downside entropy to capture the downside risks to house prices. Our results show that M2 monetary stimulus positively impacts house prices and can help mitigate downside risks to house prices. We investigate the monetary transmission mechanism through investment and find that the monetary stimulus shock boosts investment and benefits house prices. Our results suggest that monetary policy is an effective tool for managing downside risks to house prices in China.

Key Words: China; Monetary policy; House prices at risk; Downside risks; Local projections.

http://www.aeconf.com/Articles/Nov2024/aef250212.pdf